Service Plays Saturday 05/30/09

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[Can'tPickaWinner]

NHL DUNKEL


Pittsburgh at Detroit
The Penguins open the series looking to build on their 9-3 record in their last 12 games as an underdog between +110 and +150. Pittsburgh is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 30

Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 14.299; Detroit 14.013
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140); Over

[Can'tPickaWinner]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Cleveland (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) at (3) Orlando (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS)

The Cavaliers, the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs, continue their quest to keep their season alive when they travel to Amway Arena for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Magic, who remain just one win away from their second-ever trip to the NBA Finals.

In Game 5 Thursday night, Cleveland gave away all of a 22-point first half lead, but LeBron James either scored or assisted on all of the Cavs’ fourth-quarter baskets as they earned a 112-102 victory laying 7½ points at home. James finished with a triple-double of 37 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists, and four teammates scored in double figures, including Mo Williams (24 points), who hit 6 of 9 from three-point range. The victory marked the first time in this series –and the first time in eight overall meetings with the Magic this season – that the Cavs beat the spread.

Hedo Turkoglu led Orlando with 29 points in Game 5, and Dwight Howard had 24 points and 10 rebounds before fouling out for the third time in this series. The Magic shot a respectable 45.8 percent from the floor (33 of 72) but made just eight of their 25 three-point tries (32 percent), while allowing Cleveland to shoot 50 percent from the floor (38 of 76 overall, 9 of 18 from long distance).

The Magic are still a sterling 14-2 ATS in the last 16 clashes in this rivalry, and they’ve cashed in five straight at home against Cleveland. This year, Orlando is 7-1 ATS (5-3 SU) against the Cavaliers. Also, the underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head clashes.

Cleveland is 31-16 SU (25-22 ATS) on the road this year, including 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in the playoffs, with both losses coming in Games 3 and 4 in Florida. Orlando is 38-11 SU (28-21 ATS) at Amway Arena, including 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) in the postseason.

The Cavaliers, who are 33-6 SU in their last 39 starts dating to the regular season, are on positive ATS runs of 12-5 overall, 10-2 after a spread-cover and 10-3 following a SU win. However, Mike Brown’s troops are still just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 outings against Southeast Division opponents, and they’ve failed to cover the number in four straight as a road pup.

The Magic have cashed in six of their last seven overall (5-2 SU), going 3-0 SU and ATS at home during this spurt. They are on further ATS upswings of 10-4 overall, 5-1 at Amway Arena, 9-2 against the Central Division, 4-1 as a playoff chalk and a lengthy 51-21-1 following a SU loss.

The total has gone high in four of five games in this series and five of the last six contests overall between these teams, and the over for Cleveland is on streaks of 7-1 in the conference finals and 5-1 with the Cavaliers catching less than five points. On the flip side, the under is on runs for the Cavs of 5-1 on the road and 7-2 after a SU win, and the under for Orlando is on stretches of 8-3 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 5-0 when laying less than five points, 8-1 after a non-cover and 7-1 after a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Cincinnati (26-21) at Milwaukee (28-20)

The Brewers ended the Reds’ four-game winning streak Friday and now send David Bush (3-1, 3.92 ERA) to the hill to battle Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang (5-4, 3.36) as this three-game weekend set between N.L. Central rivals resumes at Miller Park.

Milwaukee won Friday night’s opener 3-2 and has now taken three of the last four over the Reds. The win was just the Brewers’ second in their last six games, and they were held to three runs or less for the seventh straight contest. They’ve also now gone 10 straight games without getting more than four runs in a contest and they’ve managed just seven runs in the first four games of the current homestand. On the bright side, Milwaukee is on hot streaks of 13-5 at home, 18-6 against the N.L. Central, 17-5 against teams with a winning record and 18-6 as a home favorite.

While the Reds’ four-game winning streak came to an end last night, they are still on streaks of 6-2 against N.L. Central foes, 6-2 in the second game of a series and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati also has won eight of its last 12 at Miller Park and it is 5-2 in Harang’s last seven outings in Milwaukee.

On Monday, Harang allowed three runs on 10 hits in five innings to beat the Astros 8-5. He was dominant in two starts against the Brewers last season allowing a total of two runs on nine hits in a combined 16 innings as the Reds won 4-3 and 4-1. However, the Reds are just 3-13 in Harang’s last 16 road starts and 1-8 in his last nine when visiting an opponent a winning record.

The Brewers weres riding a six-game winning streak with Bush on the hill until Sunday when he allowed four runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 loss in Minnesota. In two starts at Miller Park in 2009, the right-hander has allowed seven runs (six earned) on 13 hits in 13 1/3 innings. Milwaukee is on stretches of 36-16 with Bush on the mound at home, 13-3 when he starts as a favorite and 18-4 when he starts at home against teams with a winning record.

Bush faced the Reds three times last season with the Brewers going 1-2, and both losses were at home. With Bush pitching, Milwaukee has lost six of seven against the Reds dating back to 2006.

The under is 11-5-1 in Harang’s last 17 outings and 5-1-1 in his last seven on the road. The under is also is 4-1 in Bush’s last five outings overall, but the over is 13-4-1 in Bush’s last 18 as a home favorite and 11-4-1 in his last 16 when he faces N.L. Central rivals.

Cincinnati has stayed under the total in 13 of its last 19 road games and four of its last five as a road ‘dog, but otherwise the Reds are on “over” runs of 8-3 in the second game of a series, 5-0 on Saturday and 8-1 against N.L. Central teams. Milwaukee is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 11-4 at home, 10-2 as a home favorite and 5-1 against right-handed hurlers. In this rivalry, the over is 4-2 in the last six clashes overall and 9-0-1 the last 10 times Bush has faced the Reds.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (28-21) at Toronto (28-23)

The Blue Jays will try to make it two in a row over the Red Sox when they send southpaw Brian Tallet (2-3, 4.31 ERA) to the mound opposite Brad Penny (5-1, 5.96) inside the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Toronto ended a nine-game losing skid with a 6-3 win over Boston on Friday, also ending a four-game losing skid to the Red Sox dating back to last season. Toronto has now won five straight and 14 of 18 in Canada and it is 44-21 at home dating back to last year. However, the Blue Jays remain in slumps of 1-8 against A.L. East foes and 2-6 against the Red Sox dating to last season.

Boston is just 2-3 on its current road trip and 3-7 in its last 10 on the road overall, but the Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 14-5 against winning teams, 4-1 against A.L. East teams and 10-3 against left-handed starters.

Despite a 5.81 ERA on the highway, Penny is 2-1 as a visitor, including a 6-5 win in Minnesota on Monday when he allowed three runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. He faced the Blue Jays 10 days ago and held them to two runs on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-3 Boston win. In five career starts against Toronto, Penny’s teams have never lost and he’s held the Jays to two runs or less in four of the five outings.

Tallet has a 2.66 ERA at home but hasn’t gotten a decision in 20 1/3 innings of work. The Blue Jays are 0-3 in Tallet’s last three starts even though he’s pitched at least six innings each time and allowing two earned runs in each contest. He started in Boston 11 days ago and gave up two runs on four hits in six innings of a 2-1 Blue Jays’ loss. In two career starts against the Red Sox Tallet has allowed a combined two runs on eight hits in 12 innings of work.

The over is 6-2-1 in Penny’s last nine starts overall, but the under is 4-0 in Tallet’s last four efforts against A.L. East opponents.

For Boston, the over is 13-6 in its last 19 against southpaws and 11-3-1 in its last 15 Saturday contests, but the beyond that, the Sox sport “under” trends of 11-3-1 overall, 7-1-1 on the road and 6-2 against teams with a winning record. Toronto is on “under” streaks of 6-2 at home, 9-3 against A.L. East teams and 10-4 against right-handed starters. Finally, six of the last eight meetings between these squads have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports
15-5 run on free plays

SAT: LA DODGERS

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Hondo

May 30, 2009

The Yankees did some important work for Hondo last night in Cleveland, wiping the smile off Chief Wahoo's face to widen the wad to an even-steven 500 barbers.

Today, he expects the Marlins to railroad Redding. Ten units on Johnson.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
Saturday Horses
5/30/09

Belmont Park

Race 3
#4- Aly's Wheat

Race 4
#3- Cool Coal Man

Race 8
#4- Dattts Our Girl
#10- Kristi With a K

Race 9
#4- Gozzip Girl

Race 10
#1A- Grassy

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Mr. A's

Orlando Magic -2


Saturday, May 30, 2009 1:05 PM EST.
Boston Red Sox (28-21) at Toronto Blue Jays (28-23)
(R) Brad Penny (5-1) vs. (L) Brian Tallet (2-3)
Oddsmakers: Toronto as a -120 home favorite with the total listed at 10 'over'.

Boston Red Sox +105

Saturday, May 30, 2009 9:05 PM EST.
St. Louis Cardinals (28-20) at San Francisco Giants (24-23)
(R) Chris Carpenter (2-0) vs. (L) Barry Zito (1-5)
Oddsmakers: St. Louis as a -150 road favorite with the total listed at 7 'over'.

St. Louis Cardinals -150

[Can'tPickaWinner]

MLB Computer Picks

New York Mets -105
Philadelphia Phillies -240
New York Yankees -170

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Dave Cokin free play

(917) BOSTON RED SOX
(918) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Take "(917) BOSTON RED SOX"

Today's Red Sox-Blue Jays game has a god chance of being decided by the bullpens. Tim McClelland's generally tight strike zone could mean high pitch counts for starters Brad Penny and Brian Tallet, so I'm expecting three innings plus minimum for the bullpens on each side here. That's where Boston rates a clear cut edge in my opinion, and with the Red Sox posted as dogs, I think they're the way to play this one.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Jim Feist free play

(911) CINCINNATI REDS
(912) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take "(911) CINCINNATI REDS"

Cincy is one of the top road teams in baseball. They've also had a good week, winning 4 in a row while sweeping Houston. Bronson Arroyo pitched a five-hitter to help the Cincinnati Reds beat the Houston Astros 6-1 for a three-game sweep. Starter Aaron Harang is an ace and a workhorse, with a 3.36 ERA and a 56-15 strikeout to walk ratio. Milwaukee starter Dave Bush has never liked facing the Reds, with a losing mark against them and a 6.54 ERA in 53 innings. Play the Reds.

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Gina

Saturday May 30th, 2009 8:30 p.m. est.

Cleveland Cavaliers (76-19) at Orlando Magic (70-30)
Go with the Magic at home. I believe this game can go either way, but Orlando at home has the advantage. The Cavaliers haven't won Amway Arena all season and are 0-5 ATS in the last five in Orlando. Cleveland is just 2-14 ATS versus Orlando in the last 16 meetings.

Orlando Magic -2


Saturday May 30th, 2009 7:05 p.m. est.

Detroit Tigers (26-21) at Baltimore Orioles (23-26)
(R) Justin Verlander (5-2) vs. (R) Jeremy Guthrie (4-4)

Go with the Tigers with Verlander on the hill. The right-hander is 5-0 with a 0.85 ERA over his last six starts and is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts against the Orioles. Detrot has won six of Verlander’s last 7 starts, while Baltimore has dropped six of right-hander Jeremy Guthrie last 8.

Detroit Tigers -145

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Maddux Sports

Basketball
#523 - NBA - 3 units on Cleveland +2

Today's Free Pick is Cleveland & Orlando Under 193

[Can'tPickaWinner]

DCI

Stanley Cup Finals
Game 1, best-of-7
DETROIT 4, Pittsburgh 3


Eastern Conference Finals
Game 6, best-of-7
ORLANDO 94, Cleveland 92

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Cappers Access

Dodgers
Royals
Magic

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at San Francisco

The Cardinals look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and build on their 9-0 record in Chris Carpenter's last 9 starts as a road favorite between -150 and -200. St. Louis is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 30
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 16.505; NY Mets (Redding) 15.013
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115); Over
Game 903-904: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 13.575; Arizona (Davis) 14.942
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Over
Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Stults) 15.114; Cubs (Dempster) 16.009
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-130); N/A
Game 907-908: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martis) 14.675; Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.996
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+220); Under
Game 909-910: Houston at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.611; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.836
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+130); Over
Game 911-912: Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.595; Milwaukee (Bush) 15.757
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Under
Game 913-914: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 16.156; Colorado (Hammel) 15.041
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 11
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 915-916: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.696; San Francisco (Zito) 15.191
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155); Over
Game 917-918: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Penny) 14.791; Toronto (Tallet) 14.834
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Over
Game 919-920: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 14.950; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.208
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under
Game 921-922: Detroit at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.659; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.743
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Over
Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.459; Cleveland (Carmona) 17.125
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+160); Under
Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.697; Kansas City (Meche) 14.563
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Under
Game 927-928: Oakland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.384; Texas (McCarthy) 15.200
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+150); Under
Game 929-930: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.607; LA Angels (Palmer) 14.952
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Over

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Cleveland at Orlando

The Cavs come off their victory in Game Five (112-102) and look to build on their 10-1-1 ATS record in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Cleveland is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 30
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 523-524: Cleveland at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 128.436; Orlando 128.852
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2); Under

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Johnny Guild

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic

The hungry Magic will try to end LeBron James and squad season tonight. Expect another hard fought physical battle. “Where’s the money” Orlando is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 clashes versus Cleveland, 9-1 ATS in its last 10 and has won and covered the spread in their last 5 games against the Cavaliers at Amway Arena.

Orlando Magic -2

[TheIronHorse]

DailyPowerRatings - MLB
Saturday, May 30th
5* Star - 6+ Run Differential (Highest-Rated 3 Unit Play) 4* Star - 5 Run Differential (2 Unit Play) 3* Star - 4 Run Differential (1 Unit Play) 2* Star - 2 to 3 Run Differential (Slight Edge) 1* Star - 0 to 1 Run Differential (No Play Recommended)
Team (Game*) Game Rating (Point Differential) Vegas Line Our Line Power Rating Starting Pitcher Home/ Away (915) St. Louis 3* Star -155 0 1 -1 0 (916) San Francisco 165 4 3 1 0
Today's Play:
3* St. Louis (-155) 1 Unit Play

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Savannah Sports

Todays Selections
NBA Basketball
3* Orlando Over 192.5


MLB Baseball
3* Philadelphia Under 9.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Powerplaywins
Tigers

[Can'tPickaWinner]

KOSMO
5-30-09

Atlanta -115 1 unit
Milwaukee -125 1 unit
Giants +135 1 unit
White Sox Even 1 unit

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Wunderdog

BELMONT PARK Race #2 at 1:30 PM Eastern

Top pick: #6 (BALLYTHUNDER) - Drops slightly for his second career start. He showed good early speed in his debut chasing a wire-to-wire class dropper and he held well for the show. Trainer Richard Dutrow is fine second time out (30%) and any improvement at all should get the job done.

2nd pick: #7 (Soonasigetpaid) - Improvement has been noticeable since a switch to the high-percentage Mike Maker three starts back. Stalker has finished third in his last pair and Maker will add blinkers (a 33% winning angle for the barn). Could win this if the top pick falters.

3rd pick: #3 (Orient Song) - Takes a big drop for trainer Dave Duggan in his second back off a 5 1/2 month layoff. "Legged-up" on the turf, runner shortens-up and moves back to the main track. Duggan is sharp on the surface switch (winning at a 24% clip).

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Silver Key Pick for Saturday ML Baseball

BALTIMORE GUTHRIE -R +1.5 Runs, -145 Over Detroit (7:05 et)

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Street Rosenthal

*300 Milwaukee Brewers
*200 Chicago Cubs

FREE PLAY
Cincinnati Reds Over 8.5

[Can'tPickaWinner]

Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan

Game: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals May 30 2009 7:10PM
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Kansas City Royals as the host the CWS slated to start at 7:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 34-12 making 21.6 units since 2003. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a bad offensive team scoring <=4.5 runs/game facing an average AL starting pitcher posting an ERA=4.70 to 5.70 and with good control allowing less than 1.75 BB's/start. Here is a second system that has gone 48-21 making 27.6 units for 70% winners since 1997. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a poor hitting team batting <=.260 facing an excellent AL starting pitcher posting an ERA <=3.20 and is a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. CWS starter Buehrle is 19-29 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse since 1997. CWS are also 12-27 (-14.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons. KC starter Meche is a solid 7-3 when starting against the CWS with an ERA of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.298. Buehrle is 6-1, but he has not been lights out against KC batters in his career. For example, Mark Teahan is batting 432 in 44 AB, Crips 378 in 33 AB, and Bloomquist 474 in 19 AB. Meche has allowed a 245 BA in 164 AB versus the current members of the CWS. Take KC.